2014 Ontario Election Roundup

It's been a while. Oh Well.


Wynne
-She won because she had the best personality and the best ground game; this wasn’t a Liberal victory, it was a Wynne victory
-She also won because she stuck to key messaging: I’ll admit that I was disappointed in her debate performance, but one thing she stuck to was that there were two choices in this election. That obviously resonated with voters at the NDP’s expense
-she puts away those fears about her being a leader from Toronto
-she continues her record as a winner, not matter the circumstances. Others could take a lesson *coughJohnTorycough*
-neither her sex nor her sexuality were factors

Hudak
-Ironically, his best moment imo was his concession speech: he came off as genuine and palatable. Compare that to his campaign style in which he was overly rehearsed, scripted, and seemingly sleazy. That turned voters off.
-Million jobs – you can’t be “hopey-changey” with your million jobs while promising to cut 100k jobs, it doesn’t add up. Furthermore, for hope and change to work, it has to be plausible. No one associates the Ontario PCs/Hudak with that brand of politics.
-the PC team focused on packaging their candidate, but it didn't seem like they focused on different regions/group of voters

Horwath
-Her strategy wasn’t as bad as it seemed, it was just not well executed, and perhaps she was the wrong leader to do it. Layton brought the NDP to the centre and Mulcair is trying to do the same thing. The difference with Horwath is that it didn’t seem like some gradual strategy; instead, she sent a shock to the urban NDP base. Victims: Marchese and Prue
-While her team gained in popular vote, there’s just something about her that doesn’t seem to resonate with voters. I think it’s authenticity. She seems generally amateurish on the hustings, and those things turn people off.
-She didn't prove that there was a good reason to call the election, and she paid for it.

Debate
-We all know that Hudak won the debate, but political debates aren’t necessarily about winning the argument, it’s about setting up your message.
-Hudak winning and Horwath under-performing actually set things up perfectly for Wynne’s MO in that it clarified that there were two choices. From then on the LPC banked on the fact that they could get enough people to choose their candidate, and well, the result.

Federal Politics
-This is good for Trudeau. Doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to win, but there are positive signs that his brand of politics which isn’t that far from Kathleen’s has appeal. There’s party infrastructure in Ontario that he can count on too. Still, the OLP did poorly in the southwest, so there’s much to work on
-This is not so good for Mulcair. The NDP lost some urban seats to the OLP, and this is where there will be a battle in less than a month between those two teams federally. Will the fractured NDP base in Ontario have any spillover federally?
-Harper… well people are saying it shows the Libs can win in the 905 again etc. Yes, that’s true, but Harper isn’t Hudak. He’s a better politician with a better team. Still, he’ll be facing a formidable opponent. Added to that, there’ll be a Liberal gov’t in Ontario that won’t let up on him. Wynne will be much more in step with Trudeau than McGuinty and any of his federal counterparts ever were.

Polls
-They weren’t as bad as everyone anticipated
-Ekos and Forum were good, Abacus was ok, and none were terrible except Ipsos. Gah.
-Those likely voter models need to go.