Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Oh Barack can you see?

I already started to discuss this here, but there hasn't been that much sparking my interest in the news plus the fact that school and work have been keeping me busy. Due to that, added to the fact that the article was pretty readable, I'm gonna talk a lil more. (yay for long intros). I still don't know what to think of Obama's chances; this incertainty is sensible because it's almost 2 years before the big moment. My instinct is that he won't be able to do it -- not through any real fault of his own, but I think he might not be what the stars are aligning for. As Tim Harper mentioned, there's that huge Hilary machine to worry about: even though she couldn't win the presidency, she certainly has enough stock in the DNC to take the primaries. Because of this, Obama would have to use electability to beat her. Is that the right stategy to employ? Well, that depends on who enters the race: Edwards could match him in electability, especially if a couple of southern states become soft, but Obama wouldn't be at a loss going against Edwards in an electability battle. Edwards, though, is very dynamic and could pose a real threat to Obama because he can be very engaging. That's pretty significant. Where I think Obama could trump Edwards is in image. Let's face it, Edwards has to fight the image of a sleazy class action lawyer who many people might not trust as "commander in chief." What Obama has is his presumed sophistication and statesman-like quality. Still, he shouldn't be too statesman-like because he must remain "American" enough. Oh American politics. Now for the wildcard: Gore. I must admit I wasn't aware of the Gore factor before this article, but I think he could have an impact. Usually if someone loses the presidential race that's pretty much their chance. In Gore's case, however, he apparently won the popular vote, and with Bush being possibly the worst president ever (what a title!), Gore's candidacy could be a chance for America to right their previous wrong. In a way, turn back the clock and start over, except you have thousands of dead soldiers, billions wasted, a deeply scarred reputation and... ok I suppose it wouldn't really be starting over. Don't forget Gore's new green factor; I'm still not sure how much traction that has though, especially with the moderates. Anyway, as I say quite often, it's an interesting time to be a political observer -- above or below the 49th parallel.

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